Post by Hallabalu on Oct 24, 2020 14:46:43 GMT 12
The destruction of the National Party. General Election 2020
Journalist Andrea Vance breaks down the demoralizing story of the 2020 election. Interviews and access inside campaigns, the story of how long time political giants were swallowed whole and spat out within six weeks - and how ego’s were swollen over the same period.
In 2014, David Cunliffe was so unpopular that candidates were desperate to avoid a constituency visit from the Labour leader. One MP recalls feigning an illness to stave off a tour of his electorate. Leader visits a mainstay of modern political campaigns, focus on inspiring the people for the party vote. September and October, saw Judith Collins and Jacinda Ardern fly into at least one region in a day, visiting local businesses, shaking hands, and selfies. But as Collins traveled the country, chasing poll numbers, she fell victim to the Cunliffe curse.
“If I had her in my electorate, it was actually a net negative for me,” one National MP confided. “I’m capable of locking in our National supporters myself. But I need to appeal to the center voters to get our party vote up, and Judith doesn’t appeal to the center. She’s our Cunliffe.” Tauranga was one electorate visit cancelled three days before polling day, it was a strategic blunder: an embarrassing flashback of National’s recent internal struggles. Predecessor Todd Muller, who lasted only 53 days in the job, and the man he rolled: Simon Bridges all live there. No-one told Bridges, he learned of the planned visit when his former Parliamentary staffer, Michael Fox, now working for Zespri, called to confirm plans. Collins diverted to Hamilton. One MP says the gaffe was symptomatic of the “complete disarray” that enveloped National’s campaign. “It was probably the right decision, and better to be in Hamilton. But in the end we lost both those seats too,” An MP said. Last week, Collins led National to a heavily one sided electoral defeat, winning 26.8 per cent, while Labour accounted for 49 per cent.
Amid shock, 20 MPs lost their seats in Parliament. With an influx of 40 new members due to many parties losing long held safe seats in Parliament, the future of the country is looking rosy.
Stuff spoke to a range of insiders, most anonymously, described as election night “slaughter.” The campaign was bruising. Labour launched its campaign on August 7, with a rally from Auckland’s Town Hall. Four days in, the campaign was on pause when a second wave of Covid-19 was discovered and the city was locked down. National was forced to cancel its launch giving Ardern a public platform against which her rival could not compete. although this was the “Covid election” very few are under any illusions about the true infection that cost National its support “ill-discipline”. Three years ago, the caucus was shaken by Winston Peters refusal to support Nationals bid for the popular vote and supported a Labour-led Government instead. There was disappointment, anger, and frustration in failed negotiations with Winston.
Simon Bridges succeeded Bill English as leader in February 2018, with Paula Bennett as his deputy even polling a respectable 45 per cent in May before a spat with his former whip and friend plunged the party into political turmoil. The 44-year-old leader hung on for 18 months. For months Todd Muller, an ambitious former Fonterra executive, led a group of MPs and staffers coup attempt for the leadership of the National Party. When public polling crashed (to 30.6 per cent, and then 29 per cent), Bridges and Bennett were ousted in favour of Muller and MP Nikki Kaye. “The problems for us started with Jami-Lee Ross. Then we had a coup that should never have happened,” an MP loyal to Bridges said. One outgoing politician said: “My understanding was there was one vote in it. At that point, the caucus was so divided coming out of Covid, the public...thought: this is pretty self-indulgent.” Another MP, also leaving Parliament, said: “I’m not going to tell you Simon was universally popular … there’s just no way.” If this is all the National party has to offer the people of Aotearoa, then once again the National Party are surely going to lose the next election in 2023.
Senior Journalist Andrea Vance
Photo by Iain Mcgregor.